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Delaying Local Spread on 1/4/2020
Delaying Local Spread 1-4-2020 Cumulative number of COVID-19 positive cases 1-4-2020
Cumulative number of COVID-19 positive cases 1-4-2020 Daily and Cumulative Number of Positive Cases 1-4-2020
The scale of 5000 is based on a realistic estimation of the capacity of the health care system.
If 5000 people are infected, about 20% would need hospital care (1000 patient), 5% would be admitted in intensive care units (250 patients), while 2-3% would need mechanical ventilation (150 patients).
Knowing that 5000 is a cumulative number starting Feb. 21as shown in figure 3. It is worth mentioning, that the 1000 patients are not expected to be all hospitalized at the same time. They will rather be progressively admitted and discharged over the considered period of time. Calculation done in terms of patient days shows that the demand generated by 5000 positive cases would remain compatible with the health system capacity.
The hospital capacity is expected to be 576 beds + 234 ICU beds + 263 ventilators, all dedicated to covid-19 patients, by April 1st 2020. Knowing that this capacity will gradually be enhanced (raising the bar of the figure 1).
Our strategy is to flatten the curve while increasing the capacity of the health care system to adequately respond to this pandemic.
Help us by following the instructions of the Ministry of Public Health and most of all STAY AT HOME.
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